2021.10.16 19:53 JammyJammyJams Three person tribal, shot in the dark, & our first true prisoners' dilemma. Quick analysis on the Ua tribe and the most complicated tribe dynamics we've seen on Survivor.
Let's imagine for a second Ua loses immunity next episode. Shan & Ricard will likely both want to vote Genie, meaning "logically" it appears Genie should give up her vote to use her shot in the Dark.
Let's say they Ally Together and both cast their vote for Genie, there is now a 1/6 chance Genie becomes safe, and since Shan & Ricard can only vote each other in a revote, there's a 1/6 chance Shan & Ricard will have to face off in a Fire Making Challenge.
Now let's imagine that what if Shan does not like her odds in a FMC, and to avoid the 1/6 chance she'd be forced into one, she Betrays Ricard, casting her vote against him, and now even if Genie gets her 1/6 chance, Ricard will be voted out 1-0, and Shan will be safe regardless. Not considering repercussions to her social game, this is Shan's best outcome.
Vice Versa Ricard might also want to avoid a FMC, and under the same thought process as Shan, he Betrays Shan, meaning if Genie rolls immunity, Shan will instead be voted out 1-0 with no way to save herself. That would be the worst outcome for Shan.
So what happens if Shan & Ricard, both realizing that to achieve their best outcome and to avoid their worst outcome, both decide to Betray Each Other. Now no matter what Genie rolls, Shan & Ricard will have to face off in the FMC. A scenario with an only 1/6 chance on happening if they both ally, but by both betraying each other they guarantee at least a chance to put their fate into their own hands.
A lot of moving parts huh? In some ways the Ua tribe managed to manufacture their own Prisoner's Dilemma (and an actually true one this time). And considering how these best/worst outcomes are all based off a 1/6 die, it adds a whole nother school of thought on what the correct way to vote is.
It doesn't end here though, there's still a third player in this being Genie. Now while I said it appears Genie should give up her vote to risk the shot, Genie has her own dilemma to worry about before she can use it. If Genie risks her vote there's a 5/6 chance she leaves, 1/6 chance she's safe in 3/4 scenarios. If she keeps her vote, she would guarantee her safety in 3/4 scenarios, but would also have no chance of survival if they both ally.
Let me elaborate. Let's say instead of playing her shot, she votes for Ricard. Now if Shan decides to betray Ricard, Genie is now completely safe in a scenario where she'd originally have a 5/6 chance of going home. If Shan decides to ally with Ricard, but Ricard betrays Shan, then Genie forces a 1-1-1 vote which (believing the edit & assuming that would lead to firemaking) would still basically guarantee her safety.
So now we get to Genie's dilemma. Does she rely on a die that gives her a 1/6 chance of staying or does she keep her vote knowing it would save her in any scenario where Shan or Ricard betray each other. Is the 16.666667% odds of safety better or worse than the odds of Shan/Ricard playing greedy/cautious. It's a whole new dilemma that has to take in consideration another dilemma, and it makes the answer on what anyone should do that much more complicated.
And all of this doesn't include the thought scenarios where we include Shan's extra vote or the other 2 shot in the darks still on that tribe. IMO a 4th Ua tribal would be the most complex tribal we've ever seen, and it would be so compelling to watch those three people make it through one of the most complicated thought experiments of reality TV.
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2021.10.16 19:53 Daniel_Bo 5'8 (1,74m) 145 lbs (66kg). I guess I'm around 15%. What do you think?
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2021.10.16 19:53 sharky_1500 Why is rockstar games so bad at making online games?
I've played indie games made by 2 to 5 people on steam that have better multiplayer then rockstars A MULTI BILLION DOLLAR COMPANY WITH HUNDREDS UPON HUNDRED OF EMPLOYEES
RDR 2 online is bare bones on content there's barely anything to do and has managed to implement a even WORSE microtransactions system then GTA online ( which I'll get to later) to give you an idea awhile back added Arthur Morgan's outfit which costed so many gold bars that people did the math and if you were to pay for it using gold bars you buy from the store it would cost $70 REAL LIFE DOLLARS THATS MORE THEN THE FUCKING GAME ITSELF AND ITS A SINGLE OUTFIT THATS AVAILABLE FOR FREE IN SINGLE PLAYER
which sucks because RDR 2 arguably has the best single player of any rockstar game and certainly the best single player of any game I've personally played but yet it has by far the most boring bare bones worst online of any game on this scale
Now GTA online OOOOHHH BOY
I've heard the "it's not pay to win because you don't "win" GTA online" fine then it's pay to get a advantage as alot of the business/property places and vehicles unless you grind for hours upon hours on end
Also remember how I said a single outfit in RDR online cost more then the base game itself well people have concluded that several properties and vehicles if you were to pay for shark cards costs the same price as the game too
at a snails pace you basically will almost have to pay irl money due to how tedious and unfun the grind is (it doesn't help that when doing business sales every player with a opporsor will activity try to fuck up your day by blowing up your shit)
Speaking of which rockstar KNOWS about some of the issues BUT THEY CHOOSE TO IGNORE THEM a prime example of this is in the submarine in the cayo heist the guy will sometimes say "have you tried shooting missiles at the people on flying bikes great sport here in America" meaning they are WELL AWARE of the communities feelings toward the mk 2 but don't give a shit
Another example of how lazy ABSOLUTELY LAZY rockstar is about fixing issues is that you may have heard that rockstar payed the modder who fixed the long loading times
This may seem like they did a good thing right while it is it proves how lazy they were as YEARS earlier another modern looked at the load times and concluded that rockstar could and I quote "fox their loading times in at most a day" so why is it this random modder could fix it but rockstar again a multi billion dollar company with hundred of employees couldn't bother to do so? If that doesn't spell lazy I don't know what does
There are like a hundred other problems with GTA online and there may be some issues I forgot to mention about red dead online but I think you get the point
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2021.10.16 19:53 kufurlusozlerr gotun cok guzel sari kopek gel seni bi sikim
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2021.10.16 19:53 piszkor Base range extension
Hey, ya all.
I've been trying to extend my base the susual way (place somenthing to the edge, then go a bit further etc.), but it doesn't work now.
Did HG fix/patch this recently?
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2021.10.16 19:53 asdasfazamasqwq Warbanda yeniden baslicam ama nasıl oynasam diye düşünüyorum
2021.10.16 19:53 Thornshadow17 Second breakfast is always good
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2021.10.16 19:53 johnnylgarfield New to hockey? This Seattle Times article will serve as your guide.
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2021.10.16 19:53 np147 what team did you use for toah this new rotation?
2021.10.16 19:53 thesummergamer someone made a mod on hearts of iron 4 where the leader portraits are like the ones on the videos
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2021.10.16 19:52 FlaminFatHippo What's up with ND, WashU, JHU etc
Canadian prospective student, I was looking through some of the top schools (WashU, ND, Gtown) and saw how abysmal these certain schools are in the rankings?
Why are they such a weak business school? I know their UG is a feeder but why not their MBA? Wouldn't their parent help them out? Esp. Since ND's alumni is top notch
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2021.10.16 19:52 A-mein-C-tut-W Your advertisement could be here
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2021.10.16 19:52 YuriOverLife Based Lumine ( ͡° ͜ʖ ͡°) [shaky_coffin]
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2021.10.16 19:52 Astralrealmtraveler Cali gamer seeking friend
2021.10.16 19:52 jr0127 Can some identify these please. Chicago illinois on a large grass field
2021.10.16 19:52 SummerDearest 🙃💦 (alco_180 aka Bonkyconk)
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2021.10.16 19:52 Few-Brilliant-426 Undeniable proof she faked some pregnancies 😳video link of these still frames I took to show how truly mind blowing it is she thinks she could fool anyone with this contraption up her dress!!!!! How truly horrible she made so many women feel so bad about themselves!!!!!
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2021.10.16 19:52 CaptainMatt99 Achievement Fail - Civ 6 Meme
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2021.10.16 19:52 AutoNewspaperAdmin [IN] - External Affairs Minister Jaishankar to leave for Israel on 5-day visit | The Hindu
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2021.10.16 19:52 JeffSheldrake Dalinar, what is this?
2021.10.16 19:52 No-Parking2160 what do you all feel about this? it formed a few days ago
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2021.10.16 19:52 Pitiful_Ad787 T4/3 Team suchen 3 Leute für Clash, alles außer ADC
2021.10.16 19:52 Flat-Site-3061 EXPERIENCE PLAYER IN A LAST MONTH
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2021.10.16 19:52 AutoNewspaperAdmin [IN] - Border Security Force | In the line of defence, with growing powers | The Hindu
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2021.10.16 19:52 candance_heart ✨With your help let’s see if we can finish this today! My second account has stars if you want to trade ❤️✨ [need]
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